This quote is a critique of the common human tendency to make predictions about the future based solely on past experiences or data. Munger is calling this practice “massively stupid” because it oversimplifies the complexity of life and the world, assuming that patterns will always repeat themselves exactly and that nothing will ever change or evolve.
The “extrapolation” Munger refers to is a mathematical term for extending a known sequence or trend into the future. In other words, if A led to B in the past, then A will always lead to B in the future. This kind of thinking can be useful in certain contexts, but it can also lead to serious errors in judgment and decision-making.
For instance, if a company has been successful in the past, it’s easy to assume that it will continue to be successful in the future. But this ignores the fact that markets, technologies, and consumer preferences are constantly changing. A company that fails to adapt to these changes can quickly fall behind, no matter how successful it was in the past.
In terms of personal development, this quote can serve as a reminder not to get too comfortable or complacent in our ways of thinking and behaving. Just because something worked for us in the past doesn’t mean it will always work in the future. We need to be open to new ideas, willing to challenge our assumptions, and ready to adapt to changing circumstances.
Additionally, this quote can also be interpreted as a caution against dwelling too much on past failures or mistakes. If we assume that past failure means we’re doomed to fail in the future, we’re falling into the same trap of extrapolation. Instead, we should learn from our past experiences, but also recognize that each new situation is unique and offers its own opportunities for success.
In today’s rapidly changing world, Munger’s quote is more relevant than ever. Whether we’re making decisions about business, politics, technology, or our personal lives, we need to be wary of the pitfalls of extrapolation and strive to think more critically and creatively about the future.
